WikiLeaks: Stratfor’s monitor guidance on Italy #gifiles

Stratfor‘s monitor guidance on Italy as revelead by WikiLeaks:



– Organized Crime activity is still very much an issue in Italy that we need to look at.
– Anti-immigrant violence is on the rise and needs to be monitored.
– Union protests are not usually violent, but because of the economic recession and popular dissent among the left with the government of S. Berlusconi, we need to note it.
– There have been no Muslim terrorist attacks in Italy, but the country is definitely part of the terrorist network and has been mentioned in the past in AQ messages as a potential target.
– Any new anti-terror laws and legislation are of interest. Also anti-immigrant laws by the Italian government


– Politics of Italy are incomprehensible. Keep abreast of what the main political actors are doing, it is key to watch for what is happening in Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (now called People of Freedom). Italian parties tend to mutate all the time, but it is vital to see if Berlusconi can maintain his grip on power despite some signs of wavering popularity.
– If the recession hits real hard, we need to look for a revival of the Lombardi independence movement.

International Relations:

– Italy has been a key U.S. ally in Iraq and Afghanistan. With Berlusconi in power this should continue, but we need to watch if Italy actually commits anything serious to the relationship.
– Berlusconi’s antics are starting to wear thin on the rest of Europe, does this matter in geopolitical terms? Probably not, but we nonetheless need to gauge how the rest of the EU is acting towards Italy.
– Italy and Russia have a solid relationship, ENI has very close links with Gazprom. Italy could very easily be Russia’s entry into the EU energy markets despite efforts at diversification.
– Italy is a major player in the Balkans, any moves that Italy makes in the region should be watched.


– Despite its obvious dysfunction, North of Italy is in fact the richest region of Europe. We need to watch how Italian exports and industry are handling the global drop in demand. Serious trouble could develop for the country if Lombardia starts going under.
– Italian (Milanese) banks are some of the most powerful in Europe, with lots of links in industry and in Eastern Europe. However, they could also be in trouble due to exposure abroad.
– Italy’s ballooning deficit. We need to watch it and make sure that it is not overburdening the state. It does not appear that Italy can spend any more. What happens if it really can’t.

(Download the document)


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